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Per country internet traffic as an early warning indicator

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The last few years there is a visible trend of governments shutting down the internet as a means of reducing the impact/controlling outbound communications during major incidents such as riots, conflicts, civil unrest, and other rapidly evolving situations that could pose a threat to national security. This makes monitoring internet traffic a key input for early warning indication of high-impact incidents.



In 2019 there were several examples of this behaviour. Just to reference a few: India, Iran, Indonesia, Iraq, Myanmar, Chad, Sudan, Kazakhstan, Ethiopia, etc. Typically, most of those occurred anything from hours to days before the actual incident unraveled. This means that in all of those cases tracking internet traffic per country could have helped you pro-actively detect an upcoming situation, and together with other enriching sources have sufficient time to make an informed decision.



Similarly, per country internet traffic monitoring is also visibly impacted in other widespread crisis situations such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and other natural disasters. Below you can see an example of the recent (7 January 2020) earthquake in Puerto Rico. The most common patterns in cases of natural disasters is either significant traffic drop due to infrastructure issues like in the case of Puerto Rico, or increase in traffic due to the heighten outbound communications by the majority of the people in the affected geographical region. So, although this by itself could not result in immediate action, it can be automatically enriched by other means such as social media, local sensors & reporting, etc. to provide timely and actionable intelligence.



So, per country internet traffic monitoring can assist your intelligence team as an additional data point to generate actionable and timely intelligence products that will help you protect your assets proactively, and usually before an incident reaches public media.

Written by xorl

January 14, 2020 at 09:51

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